To young generation: is a hot war possible in the foreseeable future?
We are at the end of the long-term debt cycle. Dramatic things will happen on a large scale domestically and internationally, in fact, already started to happen, e.g. the Ukraine war. These kinds of significant events only happen once in 75-100 years’ time, hence they only happen once in one’s lifetime.
If you have lived through wartime, it is difficult for you to imagine the peace and prosperity that follow the war. You will tend to be wary, suspicious and risk avert.
If you grew up in peacetime, you have no mental guard for, thus are not prepared for, the possibility of the atrocity that may take place when wealth and resources become scarce for which people will be willing to die to fight with each other.
You were born in a rich and peaceful time and probably in a rich and peaceful country. You have only experienced the world for ~20-30 years, a tiny dot on the map of a long history of civilization, where war and peace take turns to dominate the world order.
The newcomer for dominance, China, is becoming strong enough to challenge the declining incumbent, the US. No way will the existing power just peacefully accept it and surrender their global interests. No negotiation or agreement will cut it. The only way is to fight it out.
Unlike domestic affairs, international order is only determined by power.
The trigger for the fight is likely to be Taiwan.
This pattern has been played many times in history, will this time it be different? No. Once a major trend is formed, it is almost impossible to revert it.
In recent history, the Netherlands lost to Britain; Britain lost to the US. Each time ugly wars were ensured. Now China shows every sign that it is on its way to reclaiming its world dominance, yet again. No other world empire was able to reclaim its dominance after its epic decline. Look at the Ottoman Empire, the Mongol Empire, the Roman Empire, Spain, Portugal, etc. With one exception, China. It managed to recover from its collapse and reassure its power 4 times already since the year 600. Now it will be its 5th time.
So yeah, a hot war between the US and China, even a WWIII, is possible… :( (WWIII or not, if/when war broke out, there is a real possibility that Europe will be dragged into it. Already has, into the current conflict between the US and Russia.) The difficult question is when. The US and China have been conducting economic & cyber warfare, testing each other’s boundaries, for a few years now. China has been waiting patiently for its opportunity, waiting for its moment for the final showdown. I believe Xi’s effort to consolidate its absolute power absolutely is part of the plan. For an autocratic country, you cannot fight a heavyweight with internal power uncertainties going on.
So yeah, boys and girls, be aware, in your young years, it is possible that you may be called to die for your country.
Now you don’t think you will be stupid enough to do that. Wait until the time is looming, you will be bombarded with nationalistic propaganda, brained washed and peer pressured to be worked up to fight for your homeland.
My tip is when the early signs are flaring, it’s better to react sooner than later. If you don’t get out of the country fast, the government will likely impose movement and capital restrictions.
I know it does not sound patriotic, but remember, when it comes to you yourself and your family, fighting innocent people you do not even know in wars is pointless for us ordinary folks.
For now, no need to be alarmed, it might take a few years before that happens. Things are not bad enough yet.
PS: if you ask me whether I want to move to China since/once it is becoming the boss of the world? The answer is, no. The richest and most powerful country in the world, so what? It will be the richest and most powerful prison in the world.